Quote of the Week: Happy Thanksgiving In a Turkey of a Year_
Zak Vora, November 24th, 2011
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24/11/11
The unimaginable has finally happened, the Daily has returned.
It’s been a while; in fact if you look at the dates above it’s been over 6 months and the change in the 1-10yr swap yield curve of a number of currencies since then till now has been reflected and boy has the world changed . The last time I wrote this I started prepping for a boxing fight, Japan got slammed by an earthquake and tsunami, and since Libya’s Gaddafi has fallen, Europe is on its knees and Greece is all but bankrupt in name. China’s housing market looks like imploding, Australia that so gallantly looked like hiking rates at the beginning of the year has since started to cut and amongst it all the world wonders what solutions are available to solve the current malaise.
To those that are unfamiliar to the Daily it’s intended to be a tongue in cheek, pithy look at the world of finance, politics, socio-economics and possibly whichever bar I may have stumbled out of the night before. For regulars, its back to haunt you, and possibly myself as I review the predictions that I put forward at the beginning of the year, (you can view them on the website), before this one dies a painful death in just over a month’s time. For those that have stuck by me and are well and truly into their second decade of reading this, seriously, haven’t you found something better to do yet?
I’m still figuring out where to start up again, the trade ideas and the shadow trading book from the start of the year needs to be rounded off for the sake of good order but I’ll come back to that. On the note of the trading front a down and dirty trade I like and have been plugging is the € Mar12 98.75/98.625/98.00 put ladder, look to buy at -1.5 for 10k a basis point with a view that a slower ECB, (on the rate cutting front), mixed with rising funding concerns will allow this puppy to pay off. If rates do come off aggressively and 3m Euribor fixings fall below 1.25% then you still collect 1.5 ticks for your troubles, with the trade being profitable for the € Mar12 above 97.86 in futures terms, (remember the ECB is flooding the market with liquidity, fixings may rise but will not scream northwards). Anyhow enough business orientated drivel, there are better things to do, after all it’s Thanksgiving, and we should be thankful for small things, like having a job, for the moment at any rate.
Have a good day_
Euribor Mar12 98.75/98.625/98.00 Put Ladder
Current Price -1.5
Go Long -1.5 10k a basis point
Stop Loss -5
Take Profit +8
This entry was posted
on Thursday, November 24th, 2011 at 7:14 pm and is filed under Blog, Featured.
