End of Year Commodity Review
Zak Vora, December 9th, 2009
09/12/09
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Change since 08/12/09
Is it cause for celebration or commiseration I’m not sure but I’ve finally got the keys to my new pad in London. Sick of sharing a moment with some guys armpit as I commute in every morning I’ve managed to get myself situated in a far more convivial location. The only downside, does this mean I’m committing myself to London? Well for next few months at least I guess. Anyhow without much ado it’s time to get on with the review for the end of the year. Once again I’ll look to keep it to bullet points, to minimize the pain of you having to read it and me having to write it, so here goes.
Predictions at End of 2008:
- Oil below $35 at the time, market players called for $25, went out on a limb to call for $100 by end of 2009
- Gold, hovered below $800, targeted $600 first before expecting it to move up to $1000
- Metals are in the midst of a 20 year bull run for commodities in general
Assessment End of 1st Quarter 2009:
- Based around the $35 a barrel mark but with a reassessment of the potential for global recovery at the time moved the target lower to $60 for year end as the macroeconomic climate deteriorated.
- Gold never managed to get to $600 before turning tail, reached the $700 mark before turning north and reaching $1000 before falling back. Moved the target higher for year end to $1200.
Assessment End of 2st Quarter 2009:
- Oil pushed higher, helped by a weaker USD, and headed to just below $70. Major pundits switched their call from $25 for year end to $100, meanwhile the Daily stuck with a target of $60.
- Retain a year end target of $1200 for Gold.
- Remain bullish on commodities in general.
Assessment End of 3rd Quarter 2009:
- Oil pushed higher and remained above the $70 mark, trading around $71.50, stuck with the $60 target for year end
- Gold continued to move north and hit a high of $1060, again held firm with a target of $1200 despite pundits pushing for $1700-$2000 by year end, (what where they smoking?).
- Remain bullish on commodities in general.
End of Yeart Final Review 2009:
- Oil has moved down from its highs of around $80 and ends the year for this review’s purpose at just over $70, overshooting the target for year end.
- Gold, having touched a high of around $1225 has recently got kicked in the teeth and moved down to $1130, down almost $20 on the day in fact, but as a result undershooting the prediction made.
OK so there wasn’t much thrown out there in the commodity arena to get buried on but in general it wasn’t too far off the mark. Oil has frothed more so than expected but certainly looks far from the $100 target suggested by many. Gold meanwhile hit the $1200 and has gyrated around there for a few weeks, if this review had been written a couple of days ago then we would have been pretty much bang on. Overall I’m pretty happy with what was suggested on the commodity front, with expectations partly based on assumptions made about the USD. Anyhow tomorrow will be either a case of looking at either equities or interest rates.
Have a good day…
This entry was posted
on Wednesday, December 9th, 2009 at 7:35 pm and is filed under Blog, Featured.
